Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya

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Joyosemito, Ibnu Susanto (2013) APPLICATION OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR EVALUATION OF A TWO-YEAR MORATORIUM POLICY ON FOREST AND PEATLAND CONCESSIONS UNDER REDD-PLUS COOPERATION IN INDONESIA WITH CASE STUDY OF PALM OIL INDUSTRY SECTOR. Masters thesis, OSAKA UNIVERSITY.

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Abstract

In this study, we aim to develop a system dynamics (SD) model to gain a better understanding about the impact of a two-year moratorium policy on the new forest and peatland concessions under REDD-plus cooperation in Indonesia’s economy and the environment with a case study of the palm oil industry. A scenario-based approach was conducted using SD modeling to extrapolate two basic scenarios of business as usual (BAU) and moratorium policy (MP) scenarios. The result demonstrated that the MP noticeably reduces GHG emissions from deforestation, the highest GHG reduction is in 2013 which 60.5% below the BAU. However, the reduction is only temporary, and the emission trend under the MP scenario would eventually return to the BAU level. In environmental perspective, the moratorium policy solely has no significant impact on environmental improvement in the long term. By contrast, Indonesia would face a trade-off between emission reductions and economic growth. The average of annual decline of CPO production from 2010 to 2020 is estimated 0.7 Million Tons per year under MP scenario. It was calculated that the difference between the lost potential value and the financial compensation of REDD-plus Cooperation is around 6.6 Billion USD. In economic perspective, the MP is not economically viable for Indonesia since the potential economic loss cannot be offset by financial compensation. The policy is a good initiation to develop the next strategy for supporting MP. However, Indonesia should be readily prepared to weather the economic slowdown because of the policy implementation. Furthermore, the slowdown effect would last sufficiently long when compared to the policy period.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Subjects:	Teknologi dan Ilmu Terapan > Teknik Lingkungan
Divisions:	Fakultas Teknik > Teknik Lingkungan
Depositing User:	Dr.Eng. Ibnu Susanto Joyosemito
Date Deposited:	12 Sep 2022 08:11
Last Modified:	12 Sep 2022 08:11
URI:	http://repository.ubharajaya.ac.id/id/eprint/15587

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